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Sam Gardiner, 29 May 2008  We have a pretty good sense of the covert operations being conducted against Iran. ABC News, Sy Hersh, Andrew Cockburn, the LA Times and even the Iranian press have given us pieces of the picture. An obvious and important question follows. How good is this campaign?
What's Involved in the Covert Campaign?
The US-funded lethal and non-lethal campaign seems to have a number of components. The Party for Free Life in Kurdistan, PJAK, is conducting one part of the campaign. Their operations inside northern Iran are quite small. Every month or so a few Revolutionary Guard soldiers are killed. Over this past weekend, the Iranian press reported three soldiers dying from wounds suffered in a clash. (Sources: Hersh, LA Times, Cockburn and casualties from Iranian press.)
Another component is coming from the Mujahedin Khalq, the MEK. Headquartered inside Iraq, the MEK support a Baluchistan independence movement. Their combat operations have included kidnapping, and the MEK seems to have been behind the bombing of a Revolutionary Guard bus in which as many as 12 soldiers were killed. (Sources: Hersh, LA Times, Turkish press reports, Cockburn. Best source of operations in Baluchistan from Pakistan is ABC News.)
A more recent effort seems to be operations by the Ahwazi Arabs in southwest Iran. According to an Ahwazi source in the UK, a recent operation involved the assassination of a colonel in the Iranian 92nd Armored Division. (Source: Cockburn and press release from British Ahwazi Society.)
Although no western sources have confirmed, the Iranians have been very vocal in accusing the CIA of being behind the bombing of a mosque in Shiraz in April.
Beyond these parts, the US is probably funding web sites and conducting information operations in Iran. Andrew Cockburn has also reported the campaign goes beyond the borders of Iran, extending "from Lebanon to Afghanistan."
Who's Running It?
Since there seems to have been no Presidential Finding, over the past couple years; the campaign was probably being funded by the Pentagon. Under Rumsfeld, it was most likely being justified with what he perceived as his authority under the Global War on Terrorism. More recent reports of a Finding and approval by congressional intelligence committees would suggest greater involvement now by the CIA.
Not surprisingly, ABC news reported the Vice President and Eliot Abrams, who is famous for another Iranian covert operation, are orchestrating the covert campaign. Again, according to ABC news, the operations from Pakistan into Iranian Baluchistan were on Cheney's agenda for discussions with Musharraf in February 2007.
Will the Campaign be Effective?
Sanctions are not working. Air strikes have a lot of down side. It is easy to see why the White House gravitated toward covert operations. Asking if the campaign will be effective, is asking if the White House made an interim easy decision or has made a choice that will achieve US objectives.
US objectives are not a secret. We would like to have Iran suspend enrichment, and we want Iran to stop supporting Hezbollah, Hamas and operations inside Iraq and Afghanistan.
In terms of targets, killing a few Revolutionary Guard soldiers every month is not going to change Iranian behavior. While the Assassination of senior Guard officers will have more effect, we know from Iran's war with Iraq, military losses are not a path to change the behavior of the leadership.
We see in the covert campaign mostly support for minority groups. Will stronger minority groups or separatist movements change the behavior of the government? Again, the answer is not likely. In fact, we will most likely see this resulting in strengthening the conservative elements of the government. In other words, the covert campaign will have the opposite effect the United States intends.
This is so important it is worth rephrasing. The United States is conducting a covert campaign inside Iran that will most likely result in more Iranian support for attacks against US forces in Iraq and Afghanistan and continue on a nuclear program.
Does the United States press on with these ill-conceived efforts? The Republican columnist Pat Buchanan wrote in April, "Needed now are congressional hearings to determine if President Bush has authorized a proxy war against Iran." That's not likely, particularly now that the Democratically controlled intelligence committees have approved the campaign.
But, what we don’t know can hurt us.
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